April saw more supplier-based price increases in wax, following the trend from Q1 of this year.

All market research shown reflects data captured on 5/2/2021 compared to data gathered on 4/1/2021 for:

• Commodity futures & indices
• Soy wax market prices
• Paraffin wax market prices

In this industry update we’ll cover:

1. How the commodity market changed
2. Impacts on soy wax
3. Impacts on paraffin wax
4. How the commodity market compares to wax prices and availability
5. Trends
6. Suggestions for using this data

Base commodity price changes

Soy wax and paraffin wax are products of the soybean and crude oil industries, respectively.

In our analysis, we compare the futures prices for the underlying commodities:

• Soybean Oil (ZL)
• Crude Oil (CL:NMX)
• S&P GSCI Index

The S&P GSCI Index is a reference price for the whole commodity market, similar to how S&P 500 tracks the value of the largest 500 companies traded on the stock exchange.

Over the last month:

• S&P GSCI Index increased 6.7%
• Crude oil increased 3.5%
• Soybean oil increased 19.7%

Increases in these areas typically pressures manufacturers and suppliers to increase their costs as well, which can impact the soy and paraffin wax markets.

Soy Wax 

Soy wax availability remained pretty constant in April – most suppliers that carried soy wax continued to carry it.  In fact, Candlewic started carrying NatureWax C-3 which it hasn’t stocked recently.

The keystone soy waxes on the market used for research were:

• Cargill NatureWax C-3
• Golden Wax 464 (AAK)
• Golden Wax 444 (AAK)

Although there are plenty of soy wax varieties, these are among the most widely available for use in candle making and represent a significant market share of soy wax.

Prices shown below reflect the advertised price per pound when buying in 40-50 pound sizes, not including shipping.

Average price of soy wax

Prices show here reflect the change from the beginning of April 2021 to the start of May 2021.

Wax	Average Price	Previous Price	Change
NatureWax C-3	$ 1.58	$ 1.50	5.5%
Golden Wax 464	$ 1.89	$ 1.87	1.0%
Golden Wax 444	$ 1.81	$ 1.70	6.5%

Takeaways

• Golden Wax 464 remains the most widely available wax on the market of the suppliers shown at an average price of $1.89 per pound
• NatureWax C-3 is about $0.31 less expensive than Golden Wax 464
• Golden Wax 444 and Golden Wax 464 are roughly identical in price at every supplier.  The primary difference between them is the melt point.
• Prices for NatureWax C-3 at the start of May start at $1.39 per pound (Pro Candle Supply) and go up to $2.00 per pound (Bramble Berry)
• Golden Wax 464 ranged from $1.41 per pound (Pro Candle Supply) to $3.90 per pound (Bramble Berry)
• Golden Wax 444 increased $0.11 in price whereas 464 stayed virtually the same.

Paraffin Wax

Paraffin wax availability remained pretty constant in April.  The main paraffins looked at were:

• IGI 4630
• IGI 4627
• IGI 4625

The International Group, Inc. manufactures the most popular paraffin waxes on the market.  In fact, there really isn’t a large competitor except for the ProBlend series unique to The Flaming Candle.

Prices shown below reflect the advertised price per pound when buying in 40-50 pound sizes, not including shipping.

Average price of paraffin wax

Prices show here reflect the change from the beginning of April 2021 to the start of May 2021.

Wax	Average Price	Previous Price	Change
IGI 4630	$ 1.74	$ 1.68	3.5%
IGI 4627	$ 1.85	$ 1.78	4.1%
IGI 4625	$ 1.74	$ 1.66	4.5%

Takeaways

• IGI 4630 is available at most suppliers that carry paraffin wax
• Paraffin wax is typically less common at candle supply stores despite having a deeper and longer history in the craft
• The average price of IGI 4627 is higher than the other major paraffins on the market
• Paraffin wax increased in price more than the increase of crude oil (3.5%) but less than the S&P GSCI Index (6.7%)

Soy vs Paraffin vs Market

Trends

1. Don’t be surprised if soy wax prices continue to climb in Q2

There’s a roughly 15% difference between how much soybean oil futures increased compared to soy wax, which could be very disruptive.

The commodity index rose more than either paraffin or soy wax did, meaning we might expect continued price increases on candle wax over the next quarter or so if rates continue.

2. Wax quality control “variances” are hitting hard

Smaller candle makers, meaning people who run part time shops, have experienced a host of problems recently with soy wax and some paraffin.

Soy wax has been more unreliable lately for many candle makers who report difficulties in maintaining the same wax + wick + fragrance oil design.

Wax reformulations, or variances in the quality control, are not a new problem, however many communities have expressed continual frustration in the consistency of wax blends coming from manufacturers lately.

3. Cargill’s new North Carolina soybean processing plan will impact candle making next year

In March, 2021 Cargill announced a $475 million effort to expand it’s U.S. soy processing capabilities.

Shortly after, they announced a $25 million expansion project in Fayetteville, North Carolina.  Their plan is to build and operationalize a new soy processing plant by the end of 2021.

Interestingly, the new site is about 90 minutes away from CandleScience’s headquarters in Durham, NC.

More soybean processing in the United States means a greater chance to increase supply to meet the ever-increasing demand for soy wax, though it remains to be seen what Cargill will ultimately do with additional firepower.

4. Supply shortages in glass continue to impact candle makers and more

One of the most common frustrations today is reliably sourcing glass containers.

Why is this hard to do?

There’s a global glass shortage driven in part by increased demand and a growing sand crisis.

The impact goes far beyond candle making too.  Any industry that needs glass or sand makes up the massive demand fighting against a limited supply (isn’t that every industry?).

As a small candle shop, the best things you can do are:

• Keep a wide portfolio of container options and remain flexible with your designs
• Reuse candle containers wherever you can for testing or personal use

You can also check out this guide on what to do when there’s a supply shortage.

How to use this data

As a candle maker, you should seek to optimize your material costs.  If you use any of the waxes shown, make sure to seek a supplier that can provide you the best price after factoring in shipping, taxes, and fees.

Typically, you’ll see the best return on your investment if you can limit shipping costs, which means finding a local supplier is the preferred solution if you can afford the drive time.

As a larger candle maker, the supplier market rates shown should drive discussions you have when purchasing at scale.  For example, the rate you pay for a single 45-50 lb case of wax should be higher than if you buy multiple cases.

This varies with the supplier, but if you understand the current market value of your wax it can help you negotiate better rates.